Lower usual amounts do not mean no arrivals. Storms and transport changes can bring large accumulations; the size of the reduction has not been measured.

Moderate support for this background tendency. This does not increase confidence in today's condition or establish a measured percentage reduction.

Season: Variable late-season arrivals. A small seasonal adjustment is used because no eligible regional alert is available. Regional Caribbean tendency; no beach-specific monthly frequencies established.

Tendency sources and limitations

Cestee: comparative beach visit
May 2026 trip, updated September 1, 2026. Specific coastal contrasts; one trip cannot establish frequencies. Affiliate travel publisher.
Journey Mexico: regional overview
Supports regional contrasts; changing editorial update and hotel-cleaning context, not a standardized beach time series.
Local comparative knowledge
Costa Mujeres generally has much less sargassum than some Cancun, Riviera Maya and Tulum beaches. Dates, measured amounts and beach frontage are unspecified; not a current observation.
Por Esto: Costa Mujeres after Beryl
July 10, 2024 reporting of substantial arrivals at Punta Sam and Costa Mujeres after Beryl; an exception to a lower-amount tendency.
CONANP: Isla Contoy beaches
Describes sargassum accumulation and turtle-nesting impacts, including April-August regional concentrations. Prevents an island-wide sargassum-free claim.
Riviera Maya seasonal overview
Broad April-October season and common May-August peak; no measured per-beach monthly probabilities.
UNAM: variable seasonal intensity
June-September can have high intensity. Regional offshore supply does not guarantee arrivals at a particular beach.

Reviewed tendency notes

Calculated: 2026-10-13 12:34 UTC.

Reliability, location, coverage and recency are assessed separately; a newer report is not automatically more trustworthy.

Recent local evidence and same-beach seasonal history are not yet qualified for this estimate.

Beach exposure: mapped shore faces east (89°). Geometry and regional context are low-confidence inputs, not observations.

The reviewed amount tendency replaces the orientation-only adjustment; geography is not counted twice. Qualified wind and current context can still modify the starting estimate.

No eligible consistent regional wind direction; no wind adjustment used.

No qualified locality current; no current adjustment used.

Cleanup is not included. Same-beach seasonal reports enter separately through combined evidence, without counting them twice.

How this outlook is calculated

Usually much less sargassum than exposed Cancun, Riviera Maya and Tulum beaches under comparable regional conditions.

Based on seasonal patterns and available coastal evidence. Geographic support: moderate. Confidence: low. Use this to compare travel months; a specific year’s bloom and local cleanup can differ.

This outlook uses seasonal context. Dated reports for this beach are not yet available; it is not a record of past clear conditions.

SEMAR regional bulletin

Issue 2026-10-05 · IOGMC 1575

Original bulletin

Historical issue; not a current beach confirmation

Last recorded source check: 2026-10-06 07:20 UTC. Issue 2026-10-06: not available at that check. This does not refresh the retained report or confirm beach conditions.

Reported regional alert: MUY BAJO. This is not a condition assigned to the selected beach.

Collected issue

Where the publisher expected arrival

Relative hours are copied from this issue, not counted from now. Place names describe the publisher's scope, not every nearby beach.

No named destinationArrival not indicated for this offshore group · 24 h in the sourceOffshore group 1, 3. This does not mean a beach is clear.
TulumPossible arrival reported · 24 h in the sourceOffshore group 2. No beach-specific quantity inferred.
I. CozumelPossible arrival reported · 24 h in the sourceOffshore group 4. No beach-specific quantity inferred.
MahahualPossible arrival reported · 24 h in the sourceOffshore group 5. No beach-specific quantity inferred.
XcalakPossible arrival reported · 48 h in the sourceOffshore group 6. No beach-specific quantity inferred.

Reported wind

Northern region: 8-13 kn from SE
Southern region: 11-15 kn from SE

Reported currents

Xcalak: 0.8 kn toward NW
Mahahual: 1 kn toward N
Tulum: 0.8 kn toward N
Playa del Carmen: 1.9 kn toward NE
Puerto Morelos: 1.6 kn toward NE
Cancún: 0.9 kn toward N

Some fields require review. Check the original bulletin; missing fields are not zero.

Source: SEMAR / IOGMC. Collected 2026-10-06. Regional reports can share satellite inputs. They are not independent beach observations or a validated BeachSignal forecast.

Local orientation, currents and cleanup can change conditions.

How it works ↗